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Zillow takes a break! MBA reassures despite falling 2022 refi market 😊

By October 19, 2021 No Comments

Zillow takes a break from iBuying

Multiple media outlets report that supply chain challenges that are straining the housing market are having the same effect on iBuying giant Zillow.

The real estate platform announced on Oct. 18 that its home-flipping business, Zillow Offers, will be taking a break from signing new contracts as the company addresses a backlog of its properties still in its renovation pipeline.

“We’re operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces,” said Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow’s chief operating officer, in a statement.

According to WSJ paywalled coverage, the pause seems to be a case of poor planning — a surprising lapse for a company that has been in the online real-estate business for nearly 17 years. 

Rather than a cash issue, Zillow is saying it experienced supply constraints having to do with on-the-ground workers and vendors. 

“Leave it to a technology company to develop an algorithm to predict home values, but mismanage the human aspect of its business,” the WSJ said.

“To add insult to injury, Zillow’s biggest competitor seems to be handling high volumes just fine. Opendoor Technologies said it is “open for business and continues to scale and grow,” noting it has worked hard over the past seven years to ensure it can continue to deliver as it expands. While Zillow long predates Opendoor as a company, it mainly offered an online marketing platform for agents before adding iBuying in 2018.

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MBA CEO: “my message to you and the entire industry is one of reassurance”

Bob Broeksmit, MBA President and CEO, opened the conference and delivered the following remarks at MBA's 2021 Annual Convention & Expo. Shred Media is there covering the latest news from the conference.

In his comments, Broeksmit praised advances in tech, from open to close, but bemoaned the fact that our industry entered another era of less guidance and more enforcement.

“An aggressive regulatory posture is back,” he said. “Well, my message to you and the entire industry is one of reassurance.”

He added that dealing with the CFPB remains one of the MBA’s biggest focuses.

“We were disappointed to see the Bureau delay the new QM Rule until October 2022. The final regulation came from an open process that reflected our input and had the support of consumer advocates.

It was a well-crafted rule, but the delay makes compliance more confusing and discourages innovative business models and the responsible expansion of credit.”

Another top and timely priority is infrastructure, he added, saying the White House and Congress are still hammering out the details of a multi-trillion-dollar bill.

“The bill will include tax hikes. But we’re fighting to block the wrong tax hikes,” he said. 


🔥 Live from MBA 🔥

With Josh Pitts & Jacob Gaffney

MBA predicts refi market to shrink by more than 50% next year

Hey, we thought the MBA was going to try to reassure us?

The MBA projects that purchase mortgage originations will grow 9% to a new record of $1.73 trillion in 2022. 

However, like recent projections from Goldman Sachs, and after an anticipated 14% decline in 2021 to $2.26 trillion, MBA expects refinance originations will slow again next year, decreasing by 62% to $860 billion.

MBA forecasts mortgage originations to total $2.59 trillion in 2022 – a 33% decline from this year. 

In 2023, mortgage originations are expected to decrease to $2.53 trillion. 

Purchase originations are forecasted to reach new successive records in 2022 and 2023, while higher mortgage rates and fewer eligible homeowners will lead to further declines in refinance volume.   

“Mortgage lenders and borrowers should expect rising mortgage rates over the next year, as stronger economic growth pushes Treasury yields higher,” said Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Industry Technology.

Robust homebuyer demand from millennial households, households seeking more space, and still-low mortgage rates are favorable tailwinds for the housing market in 2022 and are behind MBA’s expectations of record purchase originations over the next two years.  

“2022 should be another strong year for the housing market. Homebuilders will have more success overcoming current building material shortages and should be able to increase the pace of construction to meet the sizable demand for buying,” said Fratantoni. “More newly built homes and more homeowners listing their homes for sale should lead to some deceleration in home-price growth next year. This is good news for the many would-be buyers who are currently priced out or delaying decisions because of low supply conditions and steep home-price appreciation.”  

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